Painting a Civil War
~ key strategic insights were excluded from discussion ~
I am responding to “You Don’t Want a Second US Civil War” by Civilian Rifleman — in the affirmative! Yes, we really, really do NOT want a Civil War. And, C.R. gave the over-arching points which girder that sentiment; I recommend watching his video. I also wanted to drill-down into a few, critical strategic components which Civ missed. The Scenario-Planning looks apocalyptic from up here.
Logistics
“An Army marches on its Stomach.” If you cannot transport enough fuel and food and fresh water, bullets and mortars and spare parts, then your ‘army’ doesn’t GO anywhere. You can defend your own turf, sure! Yet, there is no Force Projection. You are inert.
That is the first Key Strategic constraint on a US Civil War — supply lines are completely fragmented. Sure, Permian has oil, and so does Cushing… but how do you keep pumping it to Tampa? That isolates the Republican enclaves of Florida and the Carolinas, which would create pressure on Atlanta, in particular. When New York starts running low on oil, they have Deep Water Ports. Interior Logistics will collapse, and those regions which have access to foreign shipments will be able to sustain themselves.
Yet, those ports are a prime target for our Geopolitical Rivals.
Sabotage
In 2020, for nine months, the US Government was being hacked by Russian state-backed spies. They stole all the blueprints and software for our water and power systems. We haven’t updated anything, yet — the hack happened on Trump’s watch, then Biden ignored the problem. We are still ludicrously vulnerable to an attack by Russia and its allies. If Civil War happens here, you should expect all water and power systems to cease operating.
Meanwhile, those Deep Water Ports which are so vital strategically? China can hit the Western ones. With drone-subs fit for a narco-trafficker, China can deploy small packs of drones along the coast, to strike Key Equipment on the Ports’ GANTRY systems, making it impossible to UNLOAD shipments. When Urban populations are denied basic resources, there tends to be havoc, and a resulting exodus. While most folks in the Urban core would not be a threat to a shotgun-toting grandma in Arkansas, there are regions surrounding the Urban Cores which would be flooded 20-to-1; the number of ex-convicts in that population of evacuees would out-number the ENTIRE population of locals.
Protectorates
We do have neighbors. The Great Lakes would gain Protectorate status from Canada, just as the Southwest would become a Protectorate of Mexico. If Midwest forces attempted to push on either of those fronts, then they will be opposed by a fully-functioning modern military. They won’t budge.
New Orleans and the Urban, Minority stripe swooping East of there, through Atlanta, would be the primary flashpoint of conflict; both for logistical and territorial continuity, as well as to reduce the surface-area of the competing zones. Yet, if inlanders did succeed at gaining control of those regions, they would have no capability to operate them! Just like the Assyrians millennia ago, they defeat a city… and they have no clue how to run it!
Meanwhile, Western European powers, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia — they will all be glad to support the Deep Water Port cities, collecting a tasty war-debt if they help to ensure victory of a weakened Blue-Belt on the East Coast. Red counties are so venomously bigoted that they would only find support amongst South African ‘refugees’.
The Aftermath
I expect the Great Lakes and BosNyWash to be the Core of the surviving America, still keeping a Federalist Constitution and diplomatic ties abroad. California, my home, will be ceded to Chinese influence, through Chinese military support of Sinaloa and the like. Mexico and Canada will have peace-keeping duties on their new borders, to prevent the rurals from flooding-in. It’s a real migrant crisis, because those rurals were completely dependent upon outside sources of medical care and technology. They claim “We have all the Farms, so we’ll survive fine!” Yet, who is hauling them fertilizer? And, as soon as the John Deere breaks down, they starve. Only the surviving Deep Water Ports can sustain advanced industry and dense populations. Everyone else is officially Third World.
Civil War? Goodbye, America.
