second: I do accurate analysis on my own in *other* areas, too - just a few weeks before the essay "The Virus is a Trip-Wire" (mentioned in my early comment, which, awkwardly, will appear *beneath* this one...) I wrote "The Coronavirus Market". That was at the end of February, when US stocks had only sunk 7% (eventually, it was 35%), and all the pundits claimed "we'll bounce right back in a few months, this will be a 'Sharp-V' recovery." No mention of trillion-dollar bail-outs, end of Feb, so el Arian wasn't on CNN yet warning everyone. End of February, and I made multiple predictions: The virus would linger, and in particular it would shut-down *raw* materials production in the emerging markets. That would take *many* months to ripple-through the supply chain, eventually raising prices for goods and causing delays, bottlenecks. That is exactly what happened, in June 2020, a few months later - Brazil, the world's second-largest iron ore producer, shut down their biggest mine because of a covid outbreak. Same story for lumber; the mills were closed, and *that* is what caused the supply shock; home renovations were not magically gobbling-up an unforeseen immense volume. The mills were just shut for a month, that's all. So, steel, cement, lumber, copper, shipping containers - no one but me said a peep about that problem until November, when the final goods prices and ports started to look bad. That was nine months after my prediction. I also said, in that Feb essay, that we would "spend all of our plague-loans just in time for the re-opening" because we would expect everything to bounce right back. No trillion-dollar bail-out was mentioned for weeks after my essay, and yes, we spent it all just in time for re-opening, expecting everything to be fine automatically. THAT was when the 'supply chain disruptions' and 'raw material inflation' became news, as I predicted. Because of that supply-problem during re-opening, my essay explained that *more* businesses would have problems *after* the re-opening, and that the global market would see a "Wide-W" shaped recovery. Check all the major indexes outside of the US (because US stock is a safe-haven asset, and it goes UP when the world is most in crisis) - they all see a characteristic "W" recovery. I think on my own, saying what no one else does, and I'm correct. Check the essay, "The Coronavirus Market."