You failed to provide a rebuttal to my arguments; you have implicitly conceded. You also failed to grasp the points I made; you obviously suffer from a deficit in reading comprehension. You have a supreme surplus of pretensions, however. Go read a stat textbook - they'll tell you the same things I did.

Wait! Let me guess - you're one of the supposed 'rationalists' who used Bayes-Theorem-by-itself, because Elazier told you it works fine, and now you're butt-hurt that I took a stab at your sacred yudcowski? Plenty of other people responded to this essay with intelligent comments; you should read theirs to learn what that would look like.